By James Cox, USA TODAY


The out-of-the-way desert kingdom of Qatar once seemed like a good place to pick up the pieces from the spectacular collapse of the global trade summit in Seattle 2 years ago.

It struck the world's trade negotiators as a tranquil oasis where they could hash out differences without having to dodge angry protesters in turtle costumes and police firing rubber bullets.

Not anymore.

Trade chiefs from 142 countries are jetting to Doha, Qatar (pronounced "gutter"), for the Friday start of a 5-day World Trade Organization summit. The goal of the meeting is the same as it was in Seattle: to launch multiyear talks aimed at writing new trade rules and lowering barriers in services and farm goods.

But the gathering promises to be extremely tense. Fears of a terrorist attack have forced countries to shrink the delegations they are sending. And friction between rich and poor nations threatens another collapse, one that could halt five decades of progress in removing global trade barriers.

"We have to decide whether to keep advancing the international trading system or to let it slip backward," U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick said recently. "The meeting in Doha needs to get the WTO back on track."

A triumph, he said, would reassure markets, reverse a sudden slowdown in trade and help lift economies around the world out of recession. It also would put terrorists on notice that world leaders stand ready to "counter the revulsive destructionism of terror."

The 1999 WTO meeting in Seattle dissolved in a cloud of acrimony and tear gas. Poor countries complained that the proposed agenda for a new negotiating round contained nothing for them. They bitterly rejected President Clinton's suggestion that the WTO build minimum labor and environmental standards into trade rules.

At the same time, the USA and the 15-nation European Union fought to a stalemate over elimination of farm subsidies and bans on genetically modified crops.

Since Seattle, WTO countries have managed to narrow some of their differences. The USA, EU and bureaucrats at WTO headquarters in Geneva have spent 2 years lobbying poor countries to come back to the table.

They also have shrunk the document outlining the agenda for a new round of trade talks from 30-plus pages in Seattle to a dozen in Doha. The thinking: The more vague the wording, the less there is to fight about.

"The hoped-for scenario is one with a truncated meeting, where everybody gives something, they sign, declare victory and run for the airport," says David Woods, editor of World Trade Agenda, a Geneva-based newsletter.

Prickly issues remain, though. Among them:

Farm subsidies. The EU, along with Japan, is resisting efforts to kill export subsidies and other farm payments that distort world prices for grain, produce, meats and other agricultural goods. The USA had led a four-decade battle to dismantle European farm supports. But now, the Europeans and Japanese are demanding that U.S. export credits and other types of farm aid also be targeted for elimination.
Environmental and food-safety concerns. The EU wants to find a way to build environmental concerns into trade rules. It also wants the right to ban genetically modified foods and other products without having to scientifically prove they are harmful. And it wants to be able to mandate labeling of hormone-treated beef and foods containing genetically altered ingredients.
Import restraints. The USA is trying to deflect attacks on laws it uses to block cheap imports that hurt domestic steel producers, timber companies and other interests. Japan, South Korea, Russia, Brazil and several European countries want new rules limiting the ability of the USA to shield its market with anti-dumping laws and other import safeguards.
The issue is a double-edged sword for President Bush. Congress is unlikely to give him sweeping authority to negotiate new trade pacts unless U.S. import restraints remain strong.

But if Bush can't send trade deals to Congress for simple up or down votes — without amendments — most countries won't do any hard bargaining with the USA for fear any deal will be picked apart.

In Doha, the best that U.S. negotiators can probably hope for is a delay in the start of new rulemaking on anti-dumping and other laws, says Woods, a former WTO spokesman. "Everyone wants this. The Americans are completely isolated."

Louder voices

Poorer countries plan to flex their muscle in Doha.

They complain that the areas of their greatest economic strengths — farm commodities and textiles — are the same ones most heavily protected by the EU and USA. Many vow to walk out if the EU or USA tries to link trade to environmental or labor standards. "We want to be sure it is about trade and it is only trade-related," Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said this week. "There is a tendency to smuggle in all kinds of extraneous matters. ... They bring in child labor, lack of human rights and all that. All of these focus on developing countries."

The developing countries want major concessions. They say the WTO's dispute system, which acts as a court to hear trade cases between countries, is tilted dramatically in the favor of rich nations with squadrons of lawyers and big missions in Geneva. Swamped by their legal obligations under existing WTO rules, they want changes and clarifications — more time to rewrite their laws or change customs guidelines, more technical help from Geneva.

India, Brazil and South Africa head a bloc demanding new language giving them the right to ignore drug patents. They want to be able to make cheap generic versions of costly brand-name drugs to treat HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis and other pandemics.

Drug companies in the USA, Switzerland and other developed countries accuse India and Brazil of using public health crises as a cover for building up their own pharmaceutical industries.

The USA is trying to broker a compromise that would give the poorest countries an additional decade to comply with WTO drug-patent rules that take effect in 2006. It also would put a 5-year moratorium on most patent cases against AIDS-ravaged African countries.

A jittery group

The Bush administration fears the war in Afghanistan makes the WTO gathering an irresistible target for hard-line Muslim groups, possibly even Osama bin Laden's al-Qa'eda terror network.

The size of the official U.S. delegation has been slashed by two-thirds. In closed-door briefings, attendees have been told they might need gas masks and special medicines. They were briefed on security precautions and plans to evacuate them in case of emergency to a U.S. warship in the Persian Gulf.

Only a handful of members of Congress now plan to make the trip, down from an original list of 30-plus. And the corporate executives, lobbyists and trade groups that swarmed Seattle will be largely absent.

Negotiating sessions will be carried on the Internet. Officials from the Commerce, Agriculture and State departments who stay home can monitor the talks and weigh in with colleagues in Doha.

Delegations from other countries are no more anxious to go. They blame the USA for failing to persuade the Qataris to allow the meeting to be moved or postponed.

Zoellick reportedly explored the idea of moving the meeting to Singapore several weeks ago. But Qatari officials pleaded their case to Vice President Dick Cheney, who agreed that a move would erode support among Muslim governments for the U.S.-led coalition in the terror war.

"People either aren't going or they're taking out extra life insurance," says William Ehlers, the No. 2 trade negotiator at Uruguay's mission in Geneva. "There is a feeling the U.S. forced us into this when we could easily have done something else, maybe even had it in Qatar in the spring, when things have calmed down."

U.S. officials are especially wary of Qatar's huge population of foreign guest workers, many from Muslim countries. Qataris are a minority in their own country, numbering only 200,000 out of a population of 740,000.

Thousands of recruits from Yemen form the core of the country's security forces. Workers from other Muslim countries, including many from Pakistan, are maids, shop clerks, laborers and drivers.

Qatar was the only nation in the 142-member WTO to offer to host the 2001 meeting. And at first, it seemed the perfect antidote to Seattle. The small, remote sheikdom has a tight visa policy and a relatively small number of hotel rooms. It has a docile media, despite being home to Al-Jezeera, the Arab satellite network that has aggressively covered the war in Afghanistan.

Qatar has no labor unions, no political parties and no domestic anti-globalization groups. It is a place "known for being unknown," says the Lonely Planet travel guide.

No Seattle

The anti-globalization protesters who jammed the streets in Seattle used the last WTO summit as a springboard to disrupt subsequent international gatherings in Washington; Genoa, Italy; Prague, the Czech Republic; and Davos, Switzerland.

This time, security concerns and visa restrictions have forced them to abandon plans to blockade Doha with a flotilla of protest boats. Instead, they will hold anti-trade concerts, rallies, teach-ins, marches and workshops in cities around the world.

The lone protest vessel in Qatar is expected to be the Greenpeace flagship Rainbow Warrior. The environmental group won permission to dock at Doha with 30 crew members and what the group says is a "Noah's Ark" of free trade victims — displaced farmers, unemployed fishermen and others.

Any street protests are likely to be tiny affairs. Qatar has limited non-governmental organizations to 500 credentials. Protesters complain that business groups snapped up 350 of those slots.

Qatari authorities have warned they will crack down on disorderly protests.

Inside the meeting rooms, negotiators are hoping for order, as well.

After the flameout in Seattle, Woods says, "it is almost unthinkable they could fail."

WTO issues at a glance
Here are the main issues and players at the World Trade Organization meeting Nov. 9-13 in Doha, Qatar.
Issue For Against
Elimination of farm subsidies and supports that distort export prices U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, many developing countries European Union, Japan
Review of rules on anti-dumping laws "import-surge" safeguards Japan, South Korea U.S.
Creation of new rules for investment and anti-trust policies European Union U.S., many developing nations
Elimination of textile quotas before previously-agreed 2005 date African, Caribbean, Latin countries; Pakistan, India, China, Sri Lanka, Thailand U.S.
Weakening intellectual property protections on drug patents for public health emergencies India, Brazil, South Africa and other Sub-saharan African countries U.S.
Study of "core" labor standards European Union, U.S. Developing nations
"Precautionary" restraints allowing countries to block genetically modified foods and other products without scientific proof they are harmful European Union U.S.
Source: USA TODAY research

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